Amar Ambani, IIFL – Mumbai : The year 2015 will continue to be a great year for individual stock pickers, irrespective of whether the index delivers single digit or double digit return…
At 4 to 4.5%, our fiscal deficit is placed at one of its lowest levels in the last three decades. The government can clearly afford to increase its Plan expenditure spend as also stagger disinvestment to get the right price. The crude oil status is a big positive and will undoubtedly help keep in check the usual suspects like current account deficit and inflation. Our position on the world map couldn’t have been better. In fact, it won’t be inappropriate to call India one of the brightest spot in an otherwise dark world. Once the rupee stabilises, we strongly believe, we should see a remarkable FII inflow to the tune of $10 billion plus over the next 6 to 8 months. Notwithstanding the possibility of an US Fed interest rate surge, there’s enough liquidity in global markets to see them through with key stakeholders Japan and Europe on a predominant easing spree. Interest rates too, will begin to drop sooner than most of us expect at this point.
Last but not the least; corporate earnings should gather momentum in the coming quarters on the back of the low base of last 3 years. With a gradual demand pick up and the benefit triggers of operating and financial leverage, the corporate scorecard is likely to rise by at least 17‐18% in each of the next two years. Yes, corrections would indeed remain an integral feature of the market voyage, as they have always been, but more importantly, the overall trend is only pointing to an upward march. Never mind the ensuing dips; the market is well poised to record new highs in the years to come.
Far from indecision, this is the time ripe for positive action…this is the time to correct the reactionary sentiment of panic and perplexity that gains ground on every correction…this is the time to increase our hand‐picked exposure to that phenomenal investment avenue called equities.
Wishing you all a Happy and Prosperous 2015!